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 poisson-gamma dynamical system


Reviews: Poisson-Gamma dynamical systems

Neural Information Processing Systems

The proposed model is novel and practical, as seen from the experimental result. It is rare to see a Bayesian nonparametric model being applied to large data as it is generally not very scalable. It is a feat to see this model applied to data with high dimensions (9000 dimensions with millions of events). I am interested to know how much time is spent for training? It would be good to also present the computational time (say in the supplementary material).


A Poisson-Gamma Dynamic Factor Model with Time-Varying Transition Dynamics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Probabilistic approaches for handling count-valued time sequences have attracted amounts of research attentions because their ability to infer explainable latent structures and to estimate uncertainties, and thus are especially suitable for dealing with \emph{noisy} and \emph{incomplete} count data. Among these models, Poisson-Gamma Dynamical Systems (PGDSs) are proven to be effective in capturing the evolving dynamics underlying observed count sequences. However, the state-of-the-art PGDS still fails to capture the \emph{time-varying} transition dynamics that are commonly observed in real-world count time sequences. To mitigate this gap, a non-stationary PGDS is proposed to allow the underlying transition matrices to evolve over time, and the evolving transition matrices are modeled by sophisticatedly-designed Dirichlet Markov chains. Leveraging Dirichlet-Multinomial-Beta data augmentation techniques, a fully-conjugate and efficient Gibbs sampler is developed to perform posterior simulation. Experiments show that, in comparison with related models, the proposed non-stationary PGDS achieves improved predictive performance due to its capacity to learn non-stationary dependency structure captured by the time-evolving transition matrices.